Action Jackson Preview, Week 12
Welcome to the calm before the storm. A relatively light week in college football, which probably means the #1 and #2 teams both go down again (hey look, I’m half-right so far!). December can’t come quickly enough for BCS opportunists. Cal-UW is at 12:30 on ABC, but here’s what else is on tap.
Thursday
Oregon at Arizona, 6 PM, ESPN. Trap game? If this was the week after ASU, I’d say so, but Dixon should be back to full strength by Saturday. On the other hand, Mike Stoops is half man, half season, the Vince Carter of the Pac-10. Starts weak, gets eliminated from bowls, then roars to a strong second half and another stellar 5-7 season. Good work Stoops. Can’t wait to see you next year–gag.
Friday
Hawaii at Nevada, 8 PM, ESPN. Ahh, WAC Fridays, what would I do without you. I root for 100 points.
Saturday
Ohio St at Michigan, 9 AM, ABC. Hatred. Anger. Pain. History. Rose Bowl. Keith Jackson. Wait…no Keith? Sigh.
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Purdue at Indiana, 9 AM, ESPN. The Big Ten game everyone’s been waiting for!
Syracuse at UConn, 9 AM, ESPN2. Huskies still control their destiny–stomping over the Orangemen could do quite a bit.
Missouri at Kansas State, 9:30 AM, FSN. A trap game obvious to anyone who’s been watching this year.
Kentucky at Georgia, 9:30 AM, Online. Last big test for Georgia. Kentucky ready to play spoiler these last two weeks. Gators openly rooting for them the whole way.
LSU at Ole Miss, 12:30 PM, CBS. Let’s see how Les Miles turns this into a two TD comeback.
Penn St. at Michigan St., 12:30 PM, ESPN. Lord.
Oregon St. at Washington St., 3:30 PM, FSN. If you want Cal in the Sun Bowl, root for Wazzu. If you want Cal to stay in the Emerald Bowl, get some Beaver fever.
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Oklahoma St. at Baylor, 4 PM, FSN. Oh man, ever felt the excitement for a Baylor game?
BC at Clemson, 4:45, ESPN. Seemed a lot more interesting two weeks ago. Would be nice to see Clemson start sticking nails into the coffin. Or gags into Matt Ryan’s puke-prone mouth. Either would work.
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West Virginia at Cincinnati, 4:45, ESPN. Even if the Buckeyes falter, BCS hopes are well and alive in Ohio–if Cincinnati can crush up on West Virginia.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 5 PM, ABC. Mike Leach in primetime, ready to spoil up Stoopsie. Oh, the entertainment just writes itself.
Who Could Our Bowl Opponents Be (Emerald)?
Well, guess what. After bashing the conference for weeks, it looks like I’ll be watching ACC football these next two weeks. What goes around comes around I guess.
Here are the likelihood of bowls, in order: Emerald Bowl (most likely), Sun Bowl (possible), Las Vegas (doubtful), Holiday Bowl (pipe dream). If Ragnarok is correct, by all likelihood, the Emerald Bowl is in our sights, because you know UCLA is going to pull some amazing shit and beat either Oregon or USC. However, if UCLA loses out, and Oregon State loses one of its last two, AND we win out, then there’s a good probability we go to the Sun Bowl. Certainly looks likely, but whatever, this year has been anything but predictable in the Pac-10.
So I’m going to take a look at the top 3 bowls, post by post. Time to roll our possibilities out.
Emerald
So we’d get the ACC #5/#6/#7 this year, which just seems completely unfair on paper. Of course UCLA completely embarrassed the conference last year by spotting 44 to turgid Florida State, but that is why Karl Dorrell is Karl Dorrell. I actually think the Sun Bowl is still within our reach, although I’m sure most Cal fans would prefer to lose at Washington and stay in San Francisco then spending New Year’s Eve in male escort-friendly El Paso.
Who’s currently battling it out in there for sub-mediocrity in the consistently medicore Atlantic Coast Conference?
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Currently occupying the positions are Wake Forest, NC State, and Florida State. We can probably count out the Seminoles–they were here last year, and I don’t think the Emerald wants a repeat ACC team. Nevertheless, if Florida State does return, fresh off their second year of phasing out academics, I’ll be a little concerned–their run D is top-notch, giving up only 100 yards a game. Of course, considering the quality of ACC running backs of late, this probably doesn’t mean too much.
Naturally, FSU has its own troubles running the ball (120 yards per game–their leading rusher averages around a superb 65), and getting into the end zone (24 points per game), but they keep their opponents out too (20 points per game)–a typical, plodding, 21st century Bobby Bowden season. Plus it’d be fun to see the appropriately named De’Cody Fagg march into Castro on a Saturday night.
Naturally, as a childhood Gator fan, I would love to crush the Seminoles and their moronic fans. USC fans might be empty, but FSU fans are worthless. These are the people that make NASCAR a legit sport. I despise this team.
The Line: Cal (-7) at Washington
So this is what it’s come down to. From #1 for two hours to mere seven point favorites against the worst team in the Pac-10, most likely without their star quarterback.
Just for the record, Cal’s record against the spread this year? A whopping, awesome 3-7, including five straight downers! (Public % stands for the percentage of bets made for Cal)
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So not only have Bears fans suffered this past month–so have gambling squares everywhere (aka the American people), my friends. The public continues to lock up Cal as one of their big picks of the week (over 60% betting on Cal); they are rewarded with 1-5 bankruptcy. And sportsbooks get to set up another condo in Aruba.
And it looks as if again, the public will be all over this UW line. Excuse me while I go fucking puke.
Tears Fall From the Heavens–Report Card, Cal-USC
Quarterback: F. If the weather had been a little less wet, Longshore would have thrown four picks in this game. If Lavelle doesn’t rein in that overthrow, Nate doesn’t have a TD pass either. Pretty much a mess, and Nate’s close to Section Eight at this point. The Steve McNair-Brian Billick parallels are uncanny.
Although it seemed his ankle was healthier, I still don’t see that fluid motion that he exhibited against Oregon and Tennessee. He doesn’t shift his ankle or step into his throws, he just lets that back ankle sit there, and hopes that what he has in his arm is enough. Newsflash: It isn’t. Too many overthrows and underthrows–watching him step back in the pocket was an exhibition in nausea. Pepto Bismol anyone?
I do recall some decent deep throws to Hawkins and Jackson strung in between all the crap. Other than that, shitshow #2.
Running back: A. Longshore’s troubles marred a fantastic performance by Forsett. 209 all-purpose yards, starting with that beautiful draw run for the touchdown. The goal-line situation is frustrating, but I guess I’ll have to get used to it. Jahvid Best wasn’t terribly missed after leaving the game early, although his speed definitely could have been a boost on a slippery turf.
EDIT: Receivers: C. With what they got, they did plenty. Should really be an A+++ considering the comical throws I saw in this game. Jackson and Jordan had some important grabs to set up possible scores, and the Hawk was great again. However, I’m pretty certain there was miscommunication on particular routes, because Longshore threw passes that were definitely in curious positions. I’ll take a look at the tape this offseason, but I don’t think this was ALL on Nate.
If the Bears had won, Hawkins’s improbable end zone catch would have gone down in Cal lore. As it is, it’s another positive footnote in a disappointing finish to the season.
Why Tedford Sticks With Longshore
I know most of you are disgusted with Nate, who really did not perform well at all tonight. You know things are going pretty badly for you when the most exciting part of the entire game is seeing you hindered on the field and your backup looking ready and willing to enter the huddle.
That being said, many of you are probably getting a hoot out of our coach’s…uhh, “positive spin” on Longshore’s performance:
“I thought Nate played well. Obviously, there were a couple of plays that he’d like to have back. He was making pretty decent reads. He got rid of the ball quick; I don’t know that we got sacked. We stayed out of some long yard situations, which you can’t get in against these guys (USC). It’s a tough game to play as a quarterback when you do have to throw the ball a lot in those conditions. Obviously, you’d like to have a couple back, but I thought he threw some nice balls as well.”
Is Tedford correct? Well, yeah, somewhat. But rain causes slippage, not misdirection. Longshore’s throws were all pretty good spirals. As the game wore on though, it was clear he was underthrowing/overthrowing many of his balls. That ankle is not healed, or Nate’s game lacks finishing touch.
So why does Jeff keep on throwing Nate back into the fire? Why is he so firmly loyal when statistics and performance show that it might be best to make a change? Probably the strongest reason is that Longshore is a junior, and by all indications he is lined up to have the starting job next year. Benching him essentially ends his career at Cal, and I don’t think Tedford wants to start showing he bows to the self-entitled madness of the crowd.
But I think the issue runs deeper. If you’ve seen Tedford’s profile, you’ll know his father abandoned him at an early age. If you know Tedford’s role in this program, it’s that he takes to the athletes like his second family. He does not want to betray them like his father betrayed him, especially the leader in the locker room. It’s why he stuck with Ayoob long after his ineffectiveness was cleared, it’s why he sticks with Longshore now. It is a desirable and admirable approach for a head coach to take, especially in an age of rampant NCAA corruption and coaches throwing players under the bus.
Do I agree with this stance? Not necessarily; I’ve always believed in playing to win, and loyalty can often hinder your judgement. But remember that Tedford was once that kid who struggled to make ends meet, and despite all the odds, he prevailed and ended up fulfilling his Personal Legend. He had to fail many times to get to where he is. Perhaps Cal players and their fans will have to do the same, and should take that lesson to all aspects of their lives. And I’m okay with that.
Tedford probably knows Longshore is struggling, but inside he probably knows that it’s best to learn to fail than endlessly succeed. It gives you the mental buildup to deal with future criticism and helps you to pursue your dreams. Look at Ayoob, working with a high school football team and still coming to every Cal football game. I think Longshore’s future is a little more promising, but I’m pretty sure that the vote of confidence his coach gives him will go a long way.
If you win, good; if you lose, good. You grow more confident from the former, you mature from the latter. The failures of this year will serve us well next year, and as long as Tedford is here, the chance for success is on the horizon. Hopefully Longshore will learn these lessons in the final games and go out on a positive note into next year, and help lead Cal to building the legacy we long hoped for. Go Bears.
(Report card coming tomorrow.)
Now, please leave your rational comments as to why Tedford should not stick with Longshore. Rational, fellas.
The Lights Go Out (USC-Cal Open Thread)
And so it will be for the California Golden Bears at Memorial in 2007. What looked to once be a showdown for the Pac-10 crown now is looking like a consolation trip to whatever third-tier bowl awaits the two of us. And you can only wonder at what could have been…
You wonder if our greatest chance to usurp the throne passed three years ago, right in front of Geoff McArthur’s stumbling legs. The Pac-10 programs in the desert and in the redwoods only look to get stronger, and Cal’s issues run deeper than recruiting and execution. There is a confidence complex present that didn’t exist before…
You wonder what happens if Longshore doesn’t get his ankle caught on a knockdown, wonder how the rest of October would have gone if he is able to keep that ball going up rather than sinking into Verner’s hands…
You wonder how you can stand watching bend not break for another year, hoping for it to hold up week-by-week but always fearful of the possible collapse that lies ahead…
You can only wonder if Riley’s legs didn’t take off, down the middle, away from #1 and into football oblivion…
You wonder if your head coach will be the one to bring you to glory, or if after enough failures he will eventually leave the hippies, the fairweather fans, the agonizing bureaucracy of the UC behind to reach the top of the mountain. You live in fear until you get there, because every year you have to shoot down the rumors and hope he stays until we make it…
You can only wonder. But there are still games to be played and won. Go Bears.
This Is What Selling Out to Nike Brings You?
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In terms of another famous animated duck…I want it! I want it I want it I WANT IT!
Oh. I mean…I’m pretty sure Golden Bear athletes would gladly desire at least 10 percent of these facilities. Other than, you know, female urinals.
You know what? Forget about BP, let’s get Adidas pumping money into here! The Golden Bears and UC Berkeley are all about fair trade. Let’s bring in an environmentally responsible German company to set us straight on global responsibility and fair trade to help upgrade our dogshit facilities.
Come on man, that’s a palace. A palace built by Phil Knight, but a palace nonetheless. Can’t we at least replace the waterhose?
Action Jackson Preview, Week 11
This isn’t exactly the highest profile week for college football–the real meat is still a week or two away. College Gameday can’t really find a compelling matchup, so they’re taking a quickie to Williams College and watching them battle Amherst. Lord, even the Division III schools get high end coverage in New England. Sickening.
Here are the battles to look at if you’re staying in front of the boob tube. All times PST.
Thursday
Louisville at #7 West Virginia, 4:30 PM, ESPN. Louisville’s defense has gotten it together after a horrendous start. Anything left in the tank for their most formidable test of the season?
Saturday
On the Left Coast (outside of our rumble)…
#9 Arizona State at UCLA, 12:30 PM, ABC. Perfect time for a UCLA win. You just know this crap will happen. You can see it coming a mile away with Dorrell.
Stanford at Wazzu, 3:30 PM, FSN Bay Area.This will be a nasty game to watch. Stay away.
Washington at Oregon State, 7:15, FSN. Unless you are a Starbucks whore or enjoy wearing sleek orange, I have no idea why you’d be interested in this game.
Breaking Down the Playcalling, Part I
Sometimes you can just look at the calls.
I’m going to go more in depth into this when the season is over, but for now let’s focus on the simple details of playcalling. In general, to be good at anything, you strive for balance. Balance between how much you work and play, balance between the carbs, proteins and fats you consume, balance between the beautiful women you hang out with and the beautiful women you take home with you–even if it’s zero to zero, it’s still balance.
In football, and in general with the Bears, you hope to start out with balance early and keep it going until the end. So in this article, let’s see if we can start peeling apart what the differences are between September success and October failure.
Today we’ll look at playcalling as a whole. Here, R:P stands for rush-pass ratio. In this case we’ll say that something between 0.8 to 1.2 is about balanced, and anything to the extremes is worth noting.
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There are some stats that immediately stand out from the page. First, you can see that the most dominating of our victories (Tennessee and Arizona) relied primarily on running plays, combined with the other team abandoning the run and going strictly to the pass (we are not counting that Louisiana Tech slopfest). While we didn’t exactly run around the playground with Wazzu, we returned to the balanced attack that was a staple of our five wins.
Pac-10, Up and Down
Taking a look at the conference, the Pac-10 has never looked stronger. No one will finish with ten losses this year, and the team that might finish last (UW) has the hardest schedule in all of Divison I. Respectable year for the Pac-10, which probably has asserted itself as at least the second best football conference in the land.
Hopefully, they can get a commissioner with half-a-brain who understands the importance of national TV deals and the insignificance of volleyball ratings. I already have the perfect idea: give it to NBC! Find a way to buy out their ludicrous contract with Notre Dame, and put up a Saturday night broadcast, just like CBS does with the SEC. It’d be a hit, trust me. Call up Marv Albert and Cris Collinsworth to do the game. Or lure Keith Jackson out of retirement; he can do the play-by-play from his home. Wouldn’t mind one bit.
But I dream. No one could possibly be that smart. Onto the Pac-10 rankings…
Rank the Pac-10 in the comments and rank Cal in the poll in the sidebar.
Searching for next year.
10. Wazzu (3-6, 1-5 in the Pac-10). That Wazzu is dead last in this conference attests to the relative strength of the Pac-10, which is good for overall credibility of the Pac but sobering for the thought of Cal reaching national prominence in the near-future. Alex Brink wasn’t nearly as impressive as I thought he’d be (very erratic for three quarters before gunslinging it for the last quarter), and the Wazzu defense was the beneficiary of three moronic turnovers. It’ll be hard for them to win more than one game without a running attack. That Apple Cup will be a fun battle for next-to-last in the Pac.
9. Stanfurd (3-6, 2-5 in the Pac-10). After signs of life against TCU and Arizona, they’ve fallen back to earth with listless performances against OSU and Washington. Nevertheless, they still have a decent chance for bowl eligibility with gift-wrapped games against Wazzu and Notre Dame coming up. Winning the Big Game might be a chance for the Armed Forces Bowl, something we simply cannot allow.
8. Washington (3-6, 1-5 in the Pac-10). If football was only played up to the first half, the Huskies would be in the top 20 right now, since their biggest deficits up to that point were 3 to USC and 7 to Oregon. In the end, they simply couldn’t overcome the difficulty of their schedule and opponents (it doesn’t get easier with a trip to Beaver Stadium). I am terrified of going to Seattle next week. Jake Locker provides all the tools necessary to give our defense fits.
