Nine Reasons Why Cal Might Beat U$C
In a week where the political sphere saw a decisive underdog perform exactly like an underdog, allow me to caution that these are reasons why Cal might beat U$C, not a declaration that Cal will beat U$C. In truth I only restrain myself for fear of jinxing the team. Since way back in 1996, I’ve consistently believed Cal would beat U$C every season. But let the official record before the Football Gods show that I am technically being humble this year. No whammies.
1. Cal is improving as the season goes on.
The Oregon game, while far from perfect, shows steady improvement in several key areas — most notably in areas central to the passing game: (1) improved pass protection; and (2) fewer receiver drops. If Cal can bring a balanced offensive attack to the game, we’ll have a chance at taking it.
2. Cal 2008 is better than the Cal team that played U$C tight for most of last year’s game
Whether the 2008 Cal edition has the raw talent or depth of 2007 is debatable at best. But the 2008 edition is undoubtedly coallescing and performing better. We now have more conference wins than we had all last season, and our 6-2 overall record is better than the 5-3 record we sported at this point last year. Moreover, our losses have come exclusively on the road to good teams with winning records (can’t say that about 2007) and our out-of-conference win over Michigan State probably trumps our win over Tennessee last year.
3. U$C 2008 is not markedly improved over 2007
I remain unconvinced that this year’s U$C team is any better than last year’s. Granted U$C 2007 had two losses at this point, but those losses came against a Stanfurd team that snuck up on them to win by the narrowest of margins, and a 7-point loss to a healthy Oregon team capable of winning a national title. By contrast, this year’s road loss to Oregon State was a game in which U$C spotted the Beavers a several touchdown lead and failed to mount a legitimate comeback.
4. U$C has less experience winning gritty games
Almost every U$C-Cal matchup since 2002 has been a gritty contest that wasn’t decided until late in the game. For better or worse, Cal has played those gritty games all this season — and has won nearly all of them. U$C has arguably played in two such contests this year — at Oregon State and Arizona — and split them. All the rest of U$C’s wins have been routs. Obviously that’s because U$C is pretty damn good. But the point here is Cal has more experience winning the tight ones than U$C.
5. It’s hard to gameplan against Cal
U$C always wins the big games big. When U$C loses, it always loses to some team they didn’t see coming. I think that’s because Carroll’s greatest strength as a coach is his tremendous gameplanning ability. The upside of being a volatile team with an ongoing QB controversy is that U$C can’t know exactly which Cal it’s going to face on Saturday.
6. If you lack faith, just remember 2003
If Cal 2003 could beat U$C 2003 at home, then it’s within the realm of possibility that Cal 2008 can beat U$C 2008 on the road.
7. In recent years, homefield advantage has been muted in this rivalry.
As noted above, this rivalry has in recent years produced mostly tight contests that aren’t decided until late in the game. The one exception to that trend was 2005, when Cal was dominated at home. 2002, 2004 and 2006 were all gritty contests played in the Coliseum.
8. U$C sports a first-year starter under center
Cal beat U$C in Matt Leinart’s first year as a starter. During John David Booty’s first year as a starter, Cal played right with U$C until the final minutes of the game. Perhaps Cal can deliver enough harassment to Sanchez to make him play more like a first year starter than a national-champion-to-be.
9. U$C is a program in decline
I’ve said it before, and I mostly say it just to get a rise from U$C fans. But it is obvious that the U$C program peaked in 2004 and has been in gradual decline ever since. Now, it’s certainly possible that 2008 is an inflection point in the program’s development and U$C is on its way back up (I know the media always assumes U$C is on its way back up). Having watched the loss to Oregon State however, this year doesn’t feel to me like U$C’s return to dominance.
Now let’s Go Bears and Beat the Trojans. It is time.
CBS Sports Week 10 Blogpoll
To see the total blogpoll, click here for the poll and analysis by Brian Cook of MgoBlog.
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama |  2 |
| 2 | Penn State | — |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 7 |
| 4 | Texas |  3 |
| 5 | Oklahoma State | — |
| 6 | Florida | — |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 3 |
| 8 | Southern Cal | 1 |
| 9 | TCU | 3 |
| 10 | Boise State | 1 |
| 11 | Utah | 2 |
| 12 | Missouri | 1 |
| 13 | Georgia | 5 |
| 14 | Ball State | — |
| 15 | LSU | 3 |
| 16 | Ohio State | — |
| 17 | Michigan State | 2 |
| 18 | Northwestern | 8 |
| 19 | California | 4 |
| 20 | Maryland | 6 |
| 21 | Brigham Young | — |
| 22 | Oregon State | 4 |
| 23 | West Virginia | 3 |
| 24 | North Carolina | — |
| 25 | Minnesota | 8 |
- Why is Okie State over Oklahoma? I dunno, but their win over Missouri on the road seems more impressive than Oklahoma’s beatdowns of TCU and Kansas. Their loss to Texas looks better by the week.
- Before you shoot up Tech to #2 over Penn State, take a look at the other teams they’ve beaten. The struggles with Nebraska and A&M are a telling sign that they aren’t quite there, and that OOC schedule is a joke. If they hold off the Oklahoma schools though…
- Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma looks right for now, althought in terms of projections, it’ll probably end up Texas, Okie State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech by the end.
- USC drops down. Their signature win of the season is Ohio State. Their second biggest win involves penetration of a sterile Oregon secondary. Their third biggest win was a slopfest in the desert with Arizona. Although their aggregate victories will add up as the season goes along (a rout over Cal would go a long way), they have a long way to go before resubmitting their name in the BCS title race.
- Probably could have shifted Florida and Okie State considering their huge performance in the Cocktail Party, but it’s looking more and more like Georgia took advantage of a down year in the SEC.
- Good night Tulsa. That leaves Boise State (best win: Oregon), TCU (best win: BYU), Utah (best win: Oregon State), Ball State (best win: Navy) to bust up the BCS. Good good good. Ball State-Florida in the Sugar Bowl is just too good to comprehend. Let the bowls BURN.
- The bottom half of this poll is just a list of teams that suck too little. Bowl season is going to be fun to bet on.
- Cal at 19 seems right. In the end they’re probably the second/third best team in the Pac-10, depending on how Oregon State and the ‘Furd finish the season. The Beavers belong in because despite three defeats, two of their losses are to top 10 teams (and Utah should’ve been a win barring a drastic collapse). The 5% chance that Cal-Oregon State could be the Pac-10 title next week is a little too bizarre to picture.
California-Oregon Report Card
More postgame thoughts: Hydrotech at the Golden Blogs, The Bear Will Not Quit, Bears With Fangs, Oski Talk, Ken’s podcast from Excuse Me For My Voice.
Quarterback: To his credit, Riley was looking good out of the blocks after that “whaaa?” interception. Kevin converted all of his remaining third down opportunities into first down, first down, touchdown, first down. Just when it seemed he was ready to make the leap, WHAM. Oh well. Grade: B
Nate Longshore was adequate. 13 for 27 isn’t going to win him any awards, but he accredited himself well through horrid conditions. He could only manage one scoring drive for three points though, which does work against him, but he didn’t make any mistakes (although there were some wince-worthy moments). He’s going to have to do much more at USC if Riley isn’t able to go. Grade: B-
Running backs: Yeah, yeah, the weather conditions sucked, and it wasn’t hard to understand why Best and Vereen struggled. Still, three fumbles kept the Bears from breaking open the game. And although the Jet keeps on showing flashes of the acceleration that could make him a gamechanger on a complete Cal team, his hampered elbow and makeshift O-line won’t give him much of an opportunity to display that talent this season. His one big gallop ended in a fumble. Maddening bursts of potential followed by nothing. Grade: C+
Receivers: At least one problem seems to be solved (emphasis on ‘seems’). Verran Tucker, Nyan Boateng, and Jeremy Ross seem to be our main options going into the third quarter of the season, as they gashed the hyped Oregon secondary. I’d like to think they have the potential to do the same to the Trojans, but can they hold onto the ball for two weeks in a row? Grade: B
Run blocking: Take away Best’s 50 yard gallop, and Cal rushed for 82 yards on 39 carries, or just over 2 yards per carry. It was obviously a hasty lineup slapped into place, so they get some benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately, they move from facing the 8th best rushing defense in the country to the 3rd next week. Grade: C
Pass protection: Fairly good work against one of the strongest pass rushes in the Pac-10. Insert in Donovan Edwards and Justin Cheadle, and they only gave up one sack. Longshore and Riley did experience decent pressure all game, but that was to be expected. They’ll have to step it up a notch for the biggest game of the season and make sure the feared Trojan front seven doesn’t find the holes to knock us out. Grade: B
Run defense: What a surprise, the Ducks gashed us for 200 ground yards again. This seems to happen every season we play them, and it again has to be credited to solid O-line blocking. In the second half Oregon just ran, ran, ran, and our 3-4 couldn’t do much to stop them up front. It took that bailout penalty in the 4th quarter to stop them from taking the lead. Now they move onto face the dragon triad of Gable, Johnson and McKnight. Grade: C
Pass rush: I was actually a little disappointed because Masoli should’ve been sacked a few more times, considering how effective we’ve been at getting pressure on the quarterback. To beat USC the Bears will need to pressure Sanchez next week with their three man rushes (with the occasional delayed blitz in stride) while having their aggressive corners play on the ball and break up passes in stride (the Bears are much better at breaking up passes than tackling at this stage). The Trojans are pretty good at preventing sacks and Sanchez is pretty good at eluding them, so Zach Follett might have to replicate his otherworldly performance from Saturday. We’ll need Worrell Williams, Mike Mohamed and Cameron Jordan too to replicate their efforts. Grade: B+
Pass defense: 11 for 32 is pretty effective against Masoli. Darian Hagan continues to grow into an outstanding corner, Sean Cattouse is starting to come into his own, and Ezeff and Thompson produced their yeoman work. Unfortunately, all five of our best performances have come at home. Will they get it together on the road against the deepest receiving corps in the Pac-10? Grade: A-
Special teams: Oregon’s special teams bad, Cal’s special teams not bad. That was the point difference in this game; it was a tied game if not for the Duck miscues. Grade: B
Coaching: If we take a lead this week, and Frank Cignetti starts running tailback plunges I’m going to start downing whiskey shots. If Bob Gregory drops seven back into coverage and plays soft defense I will do the same. And please don’t make me begin to think about Alamar. Grade: C+
Overall: Not an aesthetically pleasing game to watch, and like about half the Cal games this season felt terribly gimmicky (although it looked like a lot of fun to watch from in the stands). We are approaching an astonishing level of double digit leads that just disappear in the blink of an eye (Michigan State, Oregon, Arizona). Obviously this team is a work in progress, but we’re eight games into the season. Grade: B-
Watch Cal-Oregon Online
Online stream is available here.
This is an open thread for the game, you can talk here or at CGB. Enjoy!
Time for A Change
I’m about to drastically reduce the number of posts I make here at Bears Necessity. I’ve been pondering this decision for some time, and I’ve realized that I’m not really efficient (as a writer, as a reader, as a human being) blogging on a day-by-day basis. Most of what I’ve been writing feels pretty forced over the past few months, and I seem to be avoiding writing the things I’d like to be writing at the expense of creating six new posts every week (when I’m probably capable of two or three). I’ve been thinking more and more about turning this into a community, since I don’t think I’ll be able to maintain the zeal-like focus that has kept me going at this for eighteen months. There are other things I want to do, and not all of them involve Cal football.
- I’ll only be liveblogging the final two road games (there’s a good chance I’ll be at the Washington/’Furd games anyway). For the home games, most of the readers seem to be at the game anyway, so there’s no real point in reblogging the events.
- The report cards will be brief, and they might just be grades. Ditto blogpolls.
- I’m going to try to respond more to Tony’s posts and create more of a narrative in the next few weeks if I can.
- Future posts will be more of the analytic type (statistics and gamefilm)–longer posts but in longer intervals (maybe two or three a week?), to allow more time for fans to digest the material. I don’t like playing Monday Morning quarterback as much as I did when I started this.
- And hopefully the dialogue will be more responsible and interesting in the future. I want this to be fun, so I’m going to treat it as such. Here’s for more interesting posts in the future!
CBS Sports Week 9 Blogpoll
 |
||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | — |
| 2 | Penn State | — |
| 3 | Alabama | — |
| 4 | Oklahoma | — |
| 5 | Oklahoma State | 1 |
| 6 | Florida | 2 |
| 7 | Southern Cal | — |
| 8 | Georgia | 1 |
| 9 | Utah | 4 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 2 |
| 11 | Boise State | 2 |
| 12 | TCU | 2 |
| 13 | Missouri | 6 |
| 14 | Ball State | 3 |
| 15 | Tulsa | 3 |
| 16 | Ohio State | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota | 3 |
| 18 | LSU | 8 |
| 19 | Michigan State | 7 |
| 20 | Oregon | 6 |
| 21 | Brigham Young | 2 |
| 22 | South Florida | 6 |
| 23 | California | 3 |
| 24 | North Carolina | 2 |
| 25 | Florida State | 1 |
The theme of the week? Impressive.
At first I had Georgia jumping up 3 spots for their bashing in Death Valley…
Then I realized Florida had done the exact same thing…
Then I realized Georgia’s other victories were looking less impressive by the week…
Then I saw the Gators were 6 point favorites in the Outdoor Cocktail Party…
So yeah, less impressed.
Also less impressed by Utah. Their victories OOC look worse every week. They’re still a top ten team, but the teams above them are going to have to lose one or two more before they can rise up for a title game appearance. They aren’t leaving the top 10 though.
Texas Tech’s beatdown in Kansas means a lot, but it doesn’t merit a huge jump in the polls. After a bizarre down year for the Big 12 South, it appears they’ve resumed their slapfest of their Northern rivals. Oklahoma, Okie State, Texas and Texas Tech are now 4-0 against Kansas and Missouri. One of these two teams will get one final shot in the Big 12 title game, but I wouldn’t start putting Tech up there with Texas (who have actually beaten the Oklahomas). 10th sound about right for them; a win over Texas would move them way up.
I do have an affinity for Missouri’s shutdown of Colorado though. They leap a lot, because frankly none of the teams that were ahead of them did much. Plus the fact that their two losses are to current top-five teams is a huge plus in their favor.
Yes, the Ducks and the Bears are ranked, although both of these teams are destined to lay road eggs. They go up here because the rest of the country’s two-loss teams have looked that bad. Frankly, I prefer Oregon State in the Pac-10 (two losses to top ten teams and a transition loss to the ‘Furd), but they might have to wait a few weeks when they notch more impressive victories under their belt.
While I’m less than impressed by either Oregon or Cal, they both seem better than the horrid selection of Big East and ACC schools. The fact that two ACC teams can enter the rankings each week and then lose to fall right back out is too exasperating to merit. Lucky for them, the trend will not completely continue: North Carolina is off. But Florida State’s turn in the chopping block has come (hi Georgia Tech).
Meanwhile Pitt gives up 54 to a three win Rutgers team and South Florida falls to Louisville, ending any interest the rest of the country has for the Big East. I’m tempted to kick both of them out, but South Florida stays for now. This bottom rung of the top 25 is like choosing between lepers and cripples to fight your wars.
California-UCLA Report Card
Thanks to Tony for saving me for this weekend. It’s going to be a sporadic run to the finish.
Um, yeah, I went to the game. I was actually standing next to the CGB guys, which was as surreal as it sounds. It was made even better by the fact that I could barely speak. It was not made any better by the sun projecting directly into my hatless, sunglassless eyes. Brain cancer rising.
Before I crawl back into bed, here’s an abbreviated report card. Why so short? Because I think I’ve written the same report card for ASU AND CSU AND MSU. This is a pretty easy team to review. Great at home, terrible on the road. What should we put the USC-Cal line at? -21 sound reasonable?
Quarterback: B (11 for 22 isn’t great. Some of it’s on the receivers though, but it did take that flea-flicker to break out the game. Three slow quarters will earn us double digit defecits in our next three games. But he played much better than he did against Colorado State or Maryland. Everything seemed more controlled, but the receivers could not reward his progression.)
Running backs: A (Best was great as usual–everything about that TD run lived up to the moniker of “Li’l Bush”. Vereen had his patented volume run at the end, and even Slocum showed signs of improvement in his limited touches. Won’t be that easy against Oregon though.)
Receivers: D- (I don’t know what to do. Send these guys to parental care classes? “Treat the footballs like they’re babies. Hold onto them for dear life.”)
Run blocking: B (Better. Noticed a lot of running to the left side or right behind Mack. Guess you can figure out where our weakness is on the line.)
Pass protection: SUCKS (Oregon, USC and Oregon State’s defensive plans: Rush 8 on 1st down. Rush 10 on 2nd down. Drop back 11 on 3rd down.)
Run defense: A (The longest run of the day: 8 yards on a quarterback keeper.)
Pass rush: A (Battered O-line folded like a house of cards. Won’t be so easy for them against Oregon)
Pass defense: A (Tony noted how great our defense was, but I have to say it’s really easy for the secondary to earn an A when Kevin Craft is throwing the ball right to you half the time)
Special teams: C (Anger good, punt block awful, kick coverage sucking, Tevecchio solid, typical schizo performance)
Coaching: B (It’s funny, as the offense stagnated, I was thinking the Bears needed some gadget play to get them loose, and through the third quarter I thought a flea flicker would open the game up. Lo and behold. Can I be the OC now?)
Cal Band: GREAT, UCLA Band: FAIL
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Overall: B. The score is illusory. Although it was an enjoyable fan experience, I still think we’re miles away from playing complete football. And we need complete football games against our next four opponents to notch a few victories under our belt. It needs to come together now.
UCLA Observations
The Bad
Drops and pass protection. The former may improve, but so far it isn’t trending that way. I was particularly disappointed to see Morrah continue to drop catchable balls. We know from experience that he has great hands– may they reappear during the rest of the season. Pass protection is less likely to improve. We’ve been plagued by injuries on the line all season, and with two RT’s leaving the game with injury, there will be even more holes to patch. Here’s hoping for swift recoveries. Oh yeah, special teams sucked too. Let’s pretend that’s a fluke.
The Good
Cal D great! FUCLA sucks, but forcing four picks (two pick-sixes among them) and holding any team to 16 yards rushing is a triumph. It was great to see Ezeff and Mohamed get theirs. Mahamed’s pick was especially satisfying because he’d missed an easy take-away on the previous play.
The Misleading
I remarked throughout the game (mostly in a drunken mutter) that both teams were showcasing some of the most pathetically anemic offense I’d seen. But the stat padding and scoring bonanza in the fourth quarter made the final numbers look ok for the Bears. Ultimately, I was shocked to see SportsCenter award the top two spots on Top 10 Plays of the Day to Jahvid’s TD scamper and The Flea Flicker respectively. Most of the world didn’t see the game and, apparently to them, Cal is a scoring juggernaut.
The Encouraging
Last Spring, I wrote a post on what I termed “the California State Championship.” I noted how, historically, Cal’s Rose Bowl fate has always been contingent on our ability to sweep the three other California schools. FWIT, one down, two to go. Surprisingly, with ‘Zona’s loss to U$C, Cal and OSU are the only teams presently controlling their Rose Bowl destiny (hat tip to Ken Crawford for beating me to the punch on this). So buck up Cal fans. As I said in my last post, the Rose Bowl depends only on what it always depended on: Cal winning.
The Odd
So far this season, Cal is 5-0 when not ranked in the AP top 25, and 0-2 when ranked there. We’re presently #27. Is there any way we can beat Oregon and not move back into the rankings, but it’s apparently a curse!
Remember, Our Window Has Not Yet Closed
A couple days ago, Avinash wrote about the slowly-diminishing probability that the Tedford era will deliever on its promise. In the face of yet another very disappointing loss, Avinash quite reasonably wondered whether the window of opportunity was closing on Cal’s potential to reach the Rose Bowl and/or genuinely contend for national relevance. The Arizona loss was all too familiar — right down to the fact that, as in 2006, the bar I was in featured a single, highly vocal, mentally-challenged Arizona fan (this year’s edition was insisting that Arizona’s 15-point lead constituted a “three possession game”).
But let’s look at where we are. After the 2007 season ended, we all looked back and thought how silly it was that we despaired after the loss to OSU. Yes, it was a devastating setback that took us out of national title contention. But the real damage was yet to come. If Cal had rallied after the OSU loss, just about anything — including, most obviously, the Rose Bowl — was still possible. Instead, both the team and the fanbase lamented what could have been and let the season slip away one loss at a time.
Guess what. That’s where we are right now. 2-1 in the Pac-10, a half game out of first place in the conference, and still yet to play the conference favorite. This is a position we would have killed to be back in during the doldrums of November 2007 — or November of almost any year for that matter. As fans, it’s important to remember that a strong finish, including the Rose Bowl itself, is far from out of the picture. For the most part it requires only what it required at the very beginning of the 2008 season: that Cal win. It’s that simple.
I do not mean to suggest that Cal is likely to win out or likely Rose Bowl-bound. But in my opinion it’s a little early to be writing obituaries on our season. Success would require a series of highly unlikely events. Fortunately, college football is a carnival of unlikely events. Every season. Every week.
Tomorrow, Cal has the opportunity to set the second half of the season on the correct course. It’s not too late until it’s too late.
How to Watch UCLA-California: Game Thread
In all likelihood I’ll be at the game tomorrow, so no liveblog this time. And real life has interfered with blogging, so there will be a slower set of posts for the next few weeks.
Alaska and Hawaii are getting #1 Texas vs. #6 Oklahoma State and I am terribly envious of them. Good for them. They don’t get to watch good ol’ public UC football, fine. WE DON’T NEED THEM.
Announcers on ABC: David Norrie, Terry Gannon. They will be broadcasting Oregon too.
Bars that regularly show Cal football and UCLA football are shown here. I’ll put up online streams as soon as I find them.
Sorry for the light week, but things have been hectic right now. CGB, Bears With Fangs and The Bear Will Not Quit have picked up the slack anyway. Stick with them for the near-term. Report card coming Monday. Enjoy the game.
