Pac-10 Recruiting Maps, Part I
While I’m not so hot on breaking down recruiting by stars, recruiting by location always intrigues me. It gives you an idea of a program’s reach, how well the team is recruiting in the local area, how many incursions a team is making on certain programs. And more importantly, you can dirty up Google Maps. I’m going to focus solely on the Pac-10 to avoid the upcoming maps devolving into an incomprehensible wasteland.
The excellent MapGameDay.com has some interesting breakdowns by location of where high school recruits originate. It only has data for the last two years, so for now I’ll just break down the progress Pac-10 schools have made from year to year. Given how much I love maps, I consider this a treat.
Let’s start up North and move down. Apologies for the unprofessional look of the maps, I’m no graphic designer. Gritty designer is more like it.
The Northwest
Ty Willingham knows this is the eleventh hour, and he went for broke. Nearly all the Seattle recruits ended up at UW, meaning there will be a fine specimen of talent for Willingham’s successor to choose from, since Ty will be fired long before he can utilize this class. Shameful, but reality bites. However, Ty did his best to keep Seattle, and for the most part it remained impervious to anyone else. Not even Dennis Erickson did as good a job holding Phoenix–over 80% of Pac-10 recruits in the Seattle area committed to Husky Nation.
Washington dominated Seattle, so Wazzu had to go to the outlying counties. You’ll see this trend throughout Wazzu’s recruiting, bypassing major cities and concentrated its recruiting efforts on the more sparsely populated/less desirable areas of Washington/Oregon/California/Arizona.
The Oregon schools, by contrast, got practically nothing from the Northwest. Their class was diffused throughout the nation, so neither side really made any inroads in the area. The Beavers did surprisingly little to capitalize off of a solid 8-4 season in general. Oregon would look elsewhere for powering its Nike-facility pleasure palaces.
Northern California.
Anarchy reigns. What a mess. Good luck trying to figure out the Bay Area on that map (don’t worry, we’ll get to it in a bit). You can see that Cal moved back inland again to find recruits, because attracting talent by proximity sure didn’t work. Tedford is a Fresno man, and the Central Valley is still his to pick from–Chico, Fresno, Modesto, Stockton, Merced landed him six recruits. Everyone else kind of split the difference, although you’ll notice plenty of Oregon raids from the north and USC taking from the south.
One thing this notes is that no matter how hard Cal drops (and I’ll assume it won’t get much worse than this year), there will still be enough players willing to stick with Tedford over Harbaugh. Stanford had zero recruits in Northern California. None.
The Bay Area
Cal’s collapse provided opportunity for the northern schools to raid into the Bay as the Visigoths had once sacked Rome. UW, Oregon, Wazzu all landed good recruits from the area, and even USC and Arizona. The Ducks came out the big winner in this area, tying Cal for four recruits each.
Of course, Bay Area recruiting is always a little lax–football is not a heavy coastal sport and more confined to the inlands (where high school football is a big deal). But this is Cal’s smallest haul in the Bay Area in quite some time, signifying that a program’s performance does indeed influence who gets in where. Add in Stanford’s inability to make inroads in its own backyard and the diaspora to the other Pac-10 schools and Cal fans have to hope that this year remains an aberration. Otherwise, expect a descent into average talent as schools from North and South pillage the Bay.
(Then again, Justin Forsett was a two-star…)
Next: Yo home to Bel-Air! (SoCal and Arizona)
Any thoughts, corrections on the recruiting maps? Please comment.
Saying Goodbye–The Hawk
After a dreadful game against Arizona last year, I was a little weary of Lavelle taking the big snaps. That was dumb of me. Hawkins has made great strides since then, his work ethic carrying him to a higher plateau I’d never thought he’d reach. If he can keep at it (and it appears he has in his post-Cal career), he is going to shine in the NFL.
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Strengths: Great adjustment player. If the quarterback underthrew a ball, he repositioned himself to find the ball (like with Henne on the Senior Bowl TD); if he overthrew it, he found a way to catch it (like on Longshore’s errant throw/Hawk’s brilliant adjustment in the USC game). He has pretty great leaping ability on the fade route. He runs great routes. Versatile seems like the proper word to describe his play.
Weaknesses: Sadly, the Hawk doesn’t sound like it’ll catch on in NFL stadiums. But if he manages to do it, good for him. He does still try to chest-catch rather than use his hands though (resulting in some dropped balls), so that might require some tinkering. Plus he’s not as quick as Jackson or Jordan. These seem like minor deficiencies though.
Signature moment: That catch in the USC game was phenomenal (skip to 5:17 to avoid the pain before that).
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Pro outlook: Pretty good I’d say–Hawkins has been fairly consistent with either quarterback throwing to him. He’s played second fiddle to DeSean when necessary (Oregon and UCLA in particular), but he’s also shined on his own when Jackson drew double teams and heavy coverage. He has a great chance to shine as a starting receiver–not necessarily the star, but definitely a powerful second option.
Recruiting Class of 2008
My thoughts on recruiting will come at a later time, but I don’t like evaluating potential without having the slightest idea what these players will do at Cal. I’ll examine it as the offseason goes on, but the only player I’m pretty excited about is Marvin Jones. With the receiving corps I expect him to get plenty of touches, backing up Boateng and whomever else makes it onto the starting lineup.
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However, it’s clear Cal’s fall from grace has hindered the strength of its class. Our recruiting averages are still okay, but they’re not top 25. Washington, Oregon, UCLA, ASU all had better classes. Not terribly good. A strong turnaround will be needed in 2008 to right the ship.
But I generally find the hype over 17-18 year olds to be a little exasperating. While I think there is some merit to Rivals rankings (as SMQ has detailed), the hype brought upon individual five star talents to ESPN and college football programs is just that–hype. Overall there will be no impact for at least another year or two, so average classes (36th for Cal?) can be balanced out with good ones before and after.
Retrospection Evaluation–Washington
Jake Locker should have invested heavily in health insurance if he knew Ty Willingham would turn him into a moving punching bag. The Huskies had the hardest schedule in Division I football and predictably were torn apart by season’s end. However, that did not stop the Huskies from losing games they should have won.
Wins: Other than stomping over lifeless Cal, Louis Rankin managed to run all over Stanford as well. Also an impressive win at Syracuse and beating up a decent Boise State team to start 2-0. And then the pain began.
Losses: Washington has been a terrible closing team, holding the lead against Hawaii (up 28-7), Ohio State (7-3 at half), Arizona (41-26 in the 4th), Arizona State (17-10), and in the Apple Cup (35-28 in the 4th) before blowing all of them and staying tied with USC (14-14), UCLA (10-10), and Oregon (31-31) before blowing those three. Even Rick Adelman was embarrassed. If the Huskies play three quarter games they probably are in a bowl game. But this seems more like a trend with Ty Willingham coached teams–the Huskies blew leads to Cal and Arizona State last year, although not as spectacularly as this year’s losses.
Strengths: Jake Locker. This kid is going to be the Living Dead by his fourth year, but for now he remains a modern marvel. He gets hit, he gets pulled, he gets back up and takes it. If this is the last team we end up facing in 2008, I’ll be reciting the Rosary multiple times.
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Washington also had a surprisingly strong run attack, paced by Rankin and the mobility of Locker. And that. Was. It.
Weaknesses: Their defense erodes as the game goes on. The Huskies were last in the Pac-10 at rushing defense, last in the Pac-10 at pass efficiency defense, last in the Pac-10 in total defense, next to last in the Pac-10 at scoring and pass defense…you get the picture.
Draft prospects: Um, none? Rankin maybe if he gives it a shot, or Marcel Reese (a grand total of nine receptions, WOOOO!). Huskies football did not have a great 2008, and the stock of anyone affiliated with the team suffers. It’s a pretty young group though, so things can only get better in the coming years. You’d think.
What our game showed us about them: When your defense doesn’t come to play, you usually lose? What else is there to say?
Provide your Husky thoughts in the comments.
This Looks Familiar…
Well, at least we didn’t have the most prominent ankle injury of the football season.
We’ll never really know how much Brady’s ankle affected him in the Super Bowl, but many of us will postulate. Yes, Brady did lead his team down the field 80 yards and score a go-ahead touchdown, but for the remaining fifty minutes he was harassed, bullied, knocked down, sacked, tormented. His throws floated all over the place, and you often wondered what the hell he was aiming at. He was reduced to dinking and dunking, as defenders took away the long ball as the night went on.
Sound familiar?
And then there was a bend-don’t-break defensive scheme, playing second fiddle to one of the most powerful offenses of all time, a team that wanted to keep you in front of them. Only finally someone decided to hit back, pushing their way through the doors and taking away their game.
Hmmm….
And there was a hyped coach, on the verge of achieving football immortality, but then made some questionable decisions (conservative run up the middle on 3rd and short, going for it in field goal range on 4th and long), ending up disparaging the strengths of the Patriots (their explosive offense) by playing conservative for much of the game. And they let their opponents hang around. And hang around…
Oh. Maybe these guys shouldn’t meet after all.
Let’s just say that the parallels between the current incarnation of the Patriots and the Cal Golden Bears are a little uncanny. Well, except the current Bears would never blow their bowl game. Heh.
Who had the worse ending, the Patriots or the Bears?
Home Jeers–Nate’s Travails, Part II
(Part I is here)
Nate Longshore returned to Memorial Stadium with minimal fan support–many fans had placed the blame for the losses at his feet, although there was plenty to go around (poor run D, barest of run support from Forsett against powerful defenses in the Rose Bowl and the desert, fumbles, penalties, the like). Through miserable weather conditions each night, his final home games did not assuage the doubters.
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A decent rebound performance by Nate against one of the worst defenses in the Pac-10. His numbers were minimalist, but were more than enough to get the job done. His one interception came early and had no discernible impact as the defense held. However, Longshore did fumble one snap that did lead to a field goal in the third quarter, and while his accuracy was good throughout the game, it did indeed taper off in the fourth. Although yards per catch peaked, it was more of a dink and dunk game because of the wind factor. The one real long ball attempt by Nate became Wazzu’s INT.
Conclusion: A yeoman effort by Nate. But there wasn’t any real signs that Longshore would be able to beat ‘SC with the averageness of his play. Surely didn’t stop the Longshore/Riley debate, which had begun to heat up in earnest. A strong defensive effort by the Bears punctuated the game, which makes their disappearance in the last three games all the more puzzling.
All in all, the wind helped Longshore minimize his risk-taking, which was a very good thing for Cal to hold on. On the other hand, 13 points in 57 minutes is not great output either.
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Clear dropoffs here–completion efficiency dropped off, completions dropped off. Because the Bears were always within at least seven points, Cal could afford to run and pass late into the game. After an early flourish though, Nate could not throw the ball down the field effectively. Other than the overthrown pass to Hawkins (who made an otherworldy adjustment to catch it), Nate hung on the coattails of Forsett, who produced some fantastic plays.
Conclusion: Nate didn’t have a great game, but he wasn’t the only culpable party–his receivers missed plenty of routes. There was also the matter of pouring rain, which made it difficult for either Booty or Longshore to sustain drives with their arms. In the end though, Booty made only one mistake (the fumble near the goal line). Longshore made three.
Let’s give credit to the Trojans defense too–USC’s stopped the pver-the-middle passes with their powerful linebacking corps, so when the middle closed out, Nate had to throw passes he was less capable of throwing–a few out patterns and fade routes, two of which turned into the game-deciding interceptions. These were not happy games to attend, and the lack of confidence we displayed in our quarterback showed with sporadic boos.
Well, at least the Big Game wasn’t at home.
Part III: The fall is complete.
Have any of your own thoughts on Nate’s troubles in these games?
What If Tom Brady Had Come to Cal?
Yeah, sounds like a far-fetched premise off the top. So when I figured out how close Brady had actually come to being a Golden Bear I pretty much echoed Marshawn: “WHAT?!” (well, except the two of us were talking about different things and everything, but close enough).
Nevertheless, the premise presented by this author is laughable.
It may be Cal football’s greatest loss ever: the 1995 recruiting battle for Tom Brady. He went to Michigan. Cal went into depression.
…
Bears fans must wonder, what if they could have cheered for him in Strawberry Canyon in the late 1990s? What if Cal was his springboard to an NFL legacy, one the Bears could use to recruit the next Tom Brady?
Um, we might have gone to the Sun Bowl? My memory of football history is short, but I don’t believe the late 90s sported great Cal football teams, with major deficincies at skill positions and eroding defensive talent. 3-8, 6-6, 3-8, 5-6, 4-7 during Brady’s possible years of starting.
In any case, this article reeks of hindsight bias. “Oh, if Tom Brady had come to Cal, we’d have gotten rid of the Rose Bowl jinx years ago.” The way I understand it, Brady would have been the starter upon reaching Cal, and wouldn’t have had to work as hard to reach his goals. Whether the Bears would have improved that significantly with Brady at the helm is at best a dubious claim. But thanks for the idea, mainstream media.
But there is an interesting idea that isn’t explored as much as Cal’s “tragedy”. Namely, would Brady have become the quarterback he is today if he was a Golden Bear?
I’d love to say yes just for blatant homerism. But Brady’s shortcomings that buried him on the bench at Ann Arbor, sharing field-time with Lloyd Carr favorite Drew Henson would never have been an issue. Brady had to work harder than most quarterbacks to make their way to the path they’d chose. He never had the physical gifts of a Peyton Manning–he had to utilize his mind and rebuild himself on pure effort.
And that’s what ultimately made him the winner he is today–determination to realize his Personal Legend against all odds. And today he can reach the culmination. As a Golden Bear, I think he might have still reached those goals when he made it to the NFL, but it would have been tougher for him to discover those obstacles and he might have lost the edge. Who knows.
Let me turn it over to the readers. If Tom Brady had come to Cal, would things have changed for the program’s current state? And more interestingly, would Brady have become one of the NFL’s greatest QBs if he had
Going Under the Mask
Seems prudent, at least during Super Bowl weekend.
Seeking advice for the Cal football program, Coach Jeff Tedford apparently has an appointment with the game’s master strategist.
Tedford will meet during the off-season with Patriots Coach Bill Belichick, according to a former Cal player now with New England. Ryan O’Callaghan, a backup right tackle, said Tedford couldn’t find a better brain to pick.
“I haven’t played for any other NFL coaches, but Belichick has to be the best,” said O’Callaghan, now in his second season in New England. “He’s very blunt about the way he wants things done and he does a great job making sure there are no egos.”
A Cal spokesman said he knew nothing about Tedford’s visit, but O’Callaghan said Tedford has arranged to come study the framework that has helped the Patriots go 100-28 in the Belichick era.
Sounds fine to me, as long as it doesn’t involve, you know, badly placed cameramen…
While I’m not exactly certain the problem was ego with this team, there are certain game adjustments Tedford can definitely make. For one, Belichick is notorious for dressing down his team for in game mistakes (bad route running, poor throws, missed assignments). Although these mistakes have been few and far between this season for the Patriots, the same cannot be said for the Bears. Couldn’t hurt.
More importantly, Tedford will probably re-learn the importance of leadership in the huddle (and Belichick does have the Golden Boy in the pocket) and adjust accordingly. Leadership provides confidence, and confidence is contagious, spreading through all the foot soldiers on the field. With no real offensive stars next year, Cal will have to rely on its quarterback more than ever, so it’ll be important for the Bears to have someone to follow with confidence.
Thoughts on Tedford and Belichick having a heart-to-heart?
Retrospection Evaluation–Wazzu
I’m trying to think of why I have the Cougars ranked ahead of the Wildcats in terms of status and final standings. At least Arizona put up a fight in their losses–Bill Doba just got asskicked at every juncture. This is probably why he’s gone and Mike Stoops is still here.
And it doesn’t get that much better next year with Brink leaving. Wazzu could easily be hitting the bottom next year. Oh well, at least their basketball team will make March noise.
The wins: Only the Apple Cup was any sort of close. Put 45 on San Diego State and Idaho alike; these teams finished a combined 5-19. Shut down UCLA in Pullman a week after they knocked off Cal *pounding head into wall*; stomped up Stanford and beat down
The losses: This Wazzu team despised the idea of tension. Other than their close loss to a sleepwalking Cal team and a near upset of ASU, this team got manhandled, obliterated, annihilated in defeat. Hung around with an overrated Badger team that eventually beat them by 21. USC pounded them by 33. Arizona smacked up 48 on them. The Oregon schools beat them by a combined 81 points. This team gave up 40 points or more on five occasions. To say that this defensive-minded team had “problems” is an understatement.
The bright spots: When you think about the top two QB-receiver combos in the Pac-10, you probably think Longshore-Hawkins or Booty-Davis in 2007. Yet, in terms of raw production, our two biggest winners were Tuitama-Thomas in Arizona and then Brink-Gibson in Washington State. Brandon Gibson had great numbers all season long, and certainly complemented Brink well. Wazzu was 8th in the country in pass offense, and Brink carried them to many of their victories. Unfortunately for the Cougars, that was pretty much the only thing they could carry.
The weaknesses: You play in a place like Pullman, you get to have fans like this.
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Oh, the team? Well, we thought Arizona had a terrifying disparity in run-pass production–Wazzu was even worse. One of the top pass offenses was complemented by one of the worst rushing attacks, 100th overall. Their total defense was near the bottom. As mentioned before, Wazzu gave up points in bundles. Their special teams were terrible (10th in kick returns, 8th in punt returns in conference).
Draft prospects: Uh. Brink is not an NFL quarterback. I watched him for sixty minutes against the Cal defense, and he could muster approximately no offense for 59 minutes (167 yards for the first 51 minutes, 160 for the last nine). I’ll go to what the Cougar boards had for their picks: Michael Bumpus the wide receiver, Jed Collins the tight end, Ropati Pitoitua the defensive tackle. Pretty weak class–another of the deficiencies for which Doba probably got canned (even Stoops had Cason).
What our performance against them showed us: By this point, Cal was sleepwalking through games, one-by-one (USC provided the last flicker of fight). We scored 20 points in a game we should have spotted 35. One of our best first halves of the season ended in an underachieving score of 10-0. With 3 minutes left the score was 13-9. Underwhelming is the right word. If not for Forsett, Hawkins, Follett and DeCoud, we probably lose this one and don’t go to a bowl at all. Win five, lose seven. Now THAT would have been untold misery.
Saying Goodbye–Thomas DeCoud
Solid. That’s what you can say about Thomas DeCoud. He found receiver. He saw receiver made catch. He tackled said receiver. And the pattern repeated itself. Even when Cal slid, he didn’t slide along with them. DeCoud hit double digits in tackles in four of Cal’s losses, although some of that could be accounted for a defensive line collapse. Nevertheless, his effort was solid from beginning to end, in spite of the other shortcomings of Cal’s defense this year.
Strength: If DeCoud put your arms around you, your knees were hitting grass. The embrace of inevitability.
Weakness?
Only one interception in his career. The problem with bend-not-break is you can never be certain. You KNEW Daymeion Hughes had the all-around package. DeCoud is more of a tackling specialist, which probably means a downgrade in his draft status to third round. Then again, the draft is particularly thin at safety.
Signature moment. Blowing poor Korey Bosworth up (ignore the family music tracks being played, if you will).
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Future. Boy. I’d love to say he’d be a starter down the road, but there are so many great safeties in the NFL right now. Most likely he’ll fit well in package defenses that require him to guard one-on-one. But I think the flexibility of defenses will allow him to find his gear a lot quicker than his Cal offensive counterparts. If any of our stars pan out this year I’m most sold on DeCoud.
Your thoughts on DeCoud?
