The Stat Gods Smile On Marshawn Lynch
Well…at least on his potential. One of the geniuses and/or stat geeks at Football Outsiders (who created the awesome Pro Football Prospectus, a must have for a pigskin nerd) has some interesting words about Marshawn (and the Pac-10 in general).
When I was compiling college statistics using the NCAA’s database (which covers teams from 2000-2006), I organized them by conference, normalized the teams’ schedules to a 12-game season, and then calculated the average performance each team put up for each year. By doing that, I was able to find the offensive performance of the average team in each conference over the six-year span.
What I found was that the run/pass ratio across different conferences was noticeably different. Run/pass ratio is a simple metric that measures how often a team runs the ball as opposed to passing it; for example, all D-1 teams over the six-year span averaged 1.28 rushing plays for each passing play. If you limit the figures to major conferences (the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-10, SEC, Sun Belt, and WAC), the figure is 1.24. The Big Ten and the Pac-10, though, stand on different sides of the divide. Big Ten teams averaged 1.36 rushes for each pass, while Pac-10 teams averaged only 1.08, the lowest figure for any conference.
What this means is that Big Ten rushing figures are likely to be inflated, while the passing statistics are likely depressed some. Meanwhile, the opposite is likely to be true for Pac-10 players.
In other words, the odds seem to favor Marshawn running it up on the NFL in the near future. If anything to the contrary happens, I will find Aaron Schaatz’s Tom Brady Fathead pinup and snap it to pieces.
EDIT: Lynch continues a trend of impressive games (20 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown), the only bright spot in their lopsided defeat to the Patriots.
Thoughts on this data analysis? Comment-time.
Downloading Simplicity…for Cal Games (TVUPlayer)
I’ve already told you about Sopcast for free TV. But it’s almost no good for college football coverage. For those of you without cable and without tickets (and without friends nearby with either), Cal-Arizona might be a little tough for some of you to view. But it’s always possible to find a way around these things.From Lifehacker:
TVUplayer works like this: Someone (called a “broadcaster”) records live TV on their computer, then sends out the stream to the world at large. From that point, the more people who decide to watch the station, the better the “signal” you’ll receive, since TVUplayer uses peers to redistribute content similar to bittorrent (or that’s how I understand it). That means it’s going to be uploading plenty while it’s running (and believe me, it did). What I was most impressed by is that TVUplayer was less than 1 minute behind my live TV, which is pretty impressive.
The quality tends to be better than Sopcast, although there’s not as many channels available–but it’s suitable for this week.
Use channel 51222 for Versus. (BONUS: The Big Game will probably be accessible in the same way near the end of the season.)
TVUplayer [TVU networks]
Tomorrow is A Good Day For Revenge (Cal-Arizona Soliloquy)
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November 11, 2006. One of the 5 worst sporting days of my life (I’m sure for most Cal fans it’s tops, but I’ve crossed paths with Nick Anderson, Robert Horry, Peja Stojakovic, and Wychek to Dyson. So it’s easy to say I’ve been here before.). Sometimes it’s best to move forward by looking back. So here I go…
Two wins away from the Rose Bowl. Possibly three wins away from the BCS title game. The horrors at Neyland seemed like an eternity ago. Of course, after the throttling of UCLA a week ago and the Pac-10 title showdown with USC two weeks later, Arizona should have screamed trap game. But I wasn’t too worried. I was confident we would win.
So I shrugged off Longshore’s inital trouble reading the defense. Thought Desean sank the life out of the Arizona crowd with his punt return and his torching reception. Didn’t think that the initial Lynch run callback was a bad sign of things to come, and Arizona was doing nothing special to stay in the game.
But then the Cal offense started to stagnate, and Arizona got away with not one but two interceptions because of defensive penalties on the tying drive, my reflexive mechanisms kicked into gear…oh no, it’s happening again. Watched Longshore throw the worst pass of his life to give the Wildcats the lead. Stared in horror when Hawkins (who had his worst game too) tripped up at the 5 with no one in front of him and the Bears couldn’t punch it in. Nearly gave up when Jackson’s game-saving TD reception was called back. All of it was set up for the game-clinching interception. This was like the football’s equivalent of Murphy’s Law. It was like a microcosm of my entire sports life.
I wasn’t too surprised when Cal stumbled into LA Memorial Coliseum a week later, tantalizing us for three quarters while ultimately breaking down in the 4th quarter. The damage had already been done a week earlier. We had the Rose Bowl in our sights and we gave it away under the desert skies of Tucson.
So we come to this week with a chance to destroy some more ghosts, just like we did with Tennessee three weeks past. Yes, I know Arizona is pitiful this year. Yes, the Bears are arguably stronger and more battle-tested then they were last year. None of this really matters to me. Every game, save Oregon and USC, scream trap game to me now. And I want vengeance.
Crush the Wildcats, Bears. Help to expunge that game from our collective memory banks.
Wild About the ‘Cats? (A Look Into Arizona)
It’s finally Pac-10 time. Time to get down to the heavy artillery, where I now must amplify every game’s importance. We’ve been through Tennessee, CSU, and Louisana Tech, but these next nine games are the ones that get the Bears to the Rose Bowl…and perhaps more. Time to defend the Pac-10 crown…and this time, win the tiebreaker with USC. Or at least get someone to drive a cart around the field again, or Lavelle Hawkins to get carried off the field with a real hawk.
We talked about the state of Wildcat football with the good fellows over at GOAZCATS, to help breakdown this week’s game from Arizona’s perspective.
One poster had this awesome response: “Print” this on your Cal boards: Cal is good, Arizona probably is not good.
And be done with it.
Sorry to be inhospitable but f off.”
I guess I could have ended the interview there, but I figured that there might be others with even more impressive responses. Let’s keep on, shall we?
Last year your team knocked us out of the title race in a huge upset that still leaves me shaking my hand. While the myopic Bears fan (myself) points to all the bad karma (penalties, questionable calls, receivers tripping and stepping out of bounds), the Wildcats did a lot to win it too. What were the keys to winning that game and how can they utilize those keys this year?
The three keys to me were (1) keeping the game close throughout so UA was within striking distance in the 4th, (2) stifling Marshawn Lynch (with the help of that TD being called back) in the 2nd half, and (3) putting consistent pressure on Longshore so that he did not have his best game. It was a total team effort to win that game though, not one facet really stands out, because UA needed good performances all over the field to win.
…
Also we benefited from a few giant plays. The Lynch touchdown called back on a penalty; DeSean Jackson being out of bounds by .2 inches; Cason’s int. returned for a touchdown, etc. And Arizona generally played solid defense once again.
Big plays and defense will have to do it again. Our offense should be improved, but without a D and some big plays, we won’t win.
Lavelle Hawkins is Lonely
One man in our potent offense is getting neglected for all his hard work (he does have as many TD returns this year as Tha1). Lavelle wants you to start giving him some love on his big plays. Robert Jordan gets one on replacement punt returns–why shouldn’t he get dap? None of this “Roll on you Bears” twitching your index fingers weak sauce–he wants an all-out arms flapping barrage. Considering this is his redemption week, it’s an appropriate time to start waving them arms.I was not a big fan of the Dirty Bird crap the Falcons flouted in the late 90s, but a hawk–now that’s badass my friends–a hawk prowls and gleans. Too badass for the children unfortunately, that they might need a demonstration.
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If you want a simulation of Saturday’s events, let the hawk above show you what to do in terms of cheering (he’ll be Lavelle). Hapless Tom will be the Wildcats D-backs, as both smash into one another, with Hawkins obviously gaining the upper-hand. And I guess Jerry is the Student section, urging the bird on. And then all the Wildcats will be forced to cross-dress as bodacious Hawk-chicks to tempt the Hawk away, only for him to subdue them into menial housework and motherly housecare.
Fantastic.
Ask the Readers: Most Painful Defeat in Tedford Era
Time to poll you guys about bad memories. You can vote for the worst on the sidebar, and elaborate on them in the comments. Considering our grudge match against Arizona is coming up (easily the worst moment I’ve had as a Cal football fan, although I know the Holmoe students are grumbling.), I was wondering what game remains burned in your mind. Romped by the Vols? Rodgers missing 4 passes from the nine yard line? The Texas one-two double whammy in the Rose/Holiday Bowls?
If there are enough responses, I’ll post up the best on the site later in the week. The poll question should be more uplifting next week.
Share in the comments.
The Bears Are Roaring (Blog Reactions to Louisiana Tech)
Bear Talk: One thing is for certain: The offensive line continues to do the job. Yes, there were a few false start penalties, but the line provided running room for Justin Forsett and gave quarterback Nate Longshore time to throw. Cal’s O-line has been a strength all season so far.
As a matter of fact, it seems eveyone on Cal’s offense knows how to block. So much is said about the quality of the Bears’ receivers, and usually that’s not even taking blocking into consideration. But these guys do a good job blocking. If you watch the replay of Forsett’s 39-yard touchdown run, you’ll see Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan throwing key blocks down field. And Forsett himself threw a terrific block to get Jahvid Best into the end zone on his 16-yard touchdown catch.
Jason Snell: Several terrible calls from the officials, most stunningly the obvious fumble that was called a fumble on the field, overruled by another official who decided it was an incomplete pass, and then upheld as an incompletion after a review. Guys, the guy took multiple steps and lowered his head while running with the ball. It could not have been incomplete. And yet after looking at the tape, the replay officialy decided he couldn’t overturn the call. Gritting my teeth for another year of bad Pac-10 officiating…
Quick Hits, Cal-Louisiana Tech
Here are the ruminations from the beatdown of the Bulldogs.
–I’ve been noticing it more and more, but Longshore tends to hesitate on his passes. He takes his steps back in the pocket, steps forward…then…waits one step too many to unleash the ball. It’s as if he’s trying to make the perfect throw when he should make a snap release. This tendency led to several overthrown/underthrown balls and confusion on the receiving lanes. If Longshore can throw with as much confidence as he does on his quick slants and outs, then he can utilize the explosiveness of the receiving corps to maximal efficiency.
Short explanation: Nate could have laid 60 on the Dogs. Easily. And he probably knows it too.
Nate Longshore, Airing It Deep
No official confirmation, but it looks legit (who the hell would want to fake taking Pilates classes and Ling 1A with an awesome teacher?)–Nate Longshore’s blog is up. Say what you want, but the man does seem to have a full load on his plate. And that Fall Camp Schedule definitely provides a little peak into how rigorous football can get.
During August is when all college football players get their real test. The ultimate test of toughness. It is 20+ days of nothing but football. We joke about being in football prison, especially because of the throwback jail bars on Memorial Stadium. Its 20 days of a nonstop football extravaganza. We stay in Bowles Hall, old school dorm, but then we move into the luxurious Claremont Hotel for the last few days. Never going home, no tv(except NFL network), no news updates, no visiting hours, no sleeping in. Time might as well stand still, we couldn’t even tell you what day of the week it is. All we know is that it is day 11 or day 12, 8 more to go. Here is an example of two days of camp. Keep in mind that free time is when we get treatment for our injuries and ailing bodies, as well as refresh what plays and concepts we installed that day.
Its no walk in the park. Camp is definitely a mental test, especially when even you start dreaming about football. The worst is when you have a dream about messing up a play and you get yelled at in your sleep. Yelled at on the field, yelled at in meetings, yelled at in your sleep. The price for success is high.
Anyone who’s had to stay in the Bowels deserves some sort of endurance reward. And that’s without the merits of the hottest month in the Berkeley year, although no one’s going to die of heat stroke anytime soon (and it’s generally 55 more than it’s 85 during the eighth month–what a place). Interesting that Tedford only had them watch the NFL Network–perhaps that’s what’s inspired the big playmakers to step up the first two games?
It’s still early to tell where he goes with this, but get your bookmarks/RSS ready. Transparency rocks.
Time To Start Growling (Cal-Louisiana Tech Soliloquy)
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See this up there Cal fans? This was you two weeks ago when the Vols came a calling. Not hard to understand why you seemed a little groggy–in Week 1 you always seem to need a little cajoling to get those voices howling. You’ve been in hibernation for nine long months, waiting for the kicks, the tackles, the beer, the parties, etc.The season was starting, optimism was at a high, and let’s face it, some of you were kinda cute. Even if it was the most important game of the year. Don’t worry, the ravages of Cal will soon come to claim whatever innocence is left in your young and wild hearts.
Now you, young children, must learn the importance of yelling. And I’m not talking about those pathetic yelps that some of you consider “raucous crowd noise”. Remember those self-defense classes, where they thought you to breathe with your stomach, where you go in and out? That’s how you need to be. Primal. Take your first step to Autzen status (although it’ll be another hundred before we get close to matching their intensity)
Warriors fans? Now they know how to make noise. That’s a real crowd; they make basketball smooth and cool–this is no Jumbotron crowd. Once they left, so did interest in the playoffs. We’re not even close to that intensity, but we can learn how to take a step in the right direction Saturday. It might be Louisiana Tech, but hell, the Rams just lit us up for 28. God’s on the sidelines, he needs to know that you want his ethereal presence kept there. Ann Arbor does sound rather nice in the fall doesn’t it?
Pac-10 season starts the week after this one, and our fans have to be at full strength for those games. Every game matters. Matters enough that you shouldn’t be doing the fucking Wave. Let’s start howling. We can’t be Knuts forever.
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